What is a famine?

When his camels died, Hussein fled with his eight children to Baidoa, south-west Somalia. Photo: Abdulkadir Mohamed/NRC

Somalia stands on the brink of famine. After months of catastrophic drought, the United Nations has issued a “final warning” as the most dangerous period of the crisis approaches. But what actually is a famine? Who decides when a famine is happening, and what does it mean when they do?

On August 11, 2022, the drought in Somalia reached unprecedented levels. For the first time, one million people were registered as having been displaced by the drought since it began in January 2021. “This one-million milestone serves as a massive alarm bell for Somalia,” said Mohamed Abdi, NRC’s country director in Somalia. “Starvation is now haunting the entire country.”

Since then, the situation has worsened. The UN’s Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs and Emergency Relief Coordinator, Martin Griffiths, gave a press briefing from Somalia’s capital Mogadishu. He described the devastation, suffering and death he had witnessed, but explained that “we have not met the technical thresholds for declaring [famine] yet”.

Two women stand beside the carcass of one of their goats in the Nugal region of northern Somalia. Photo: Abdulkadir Mohamed/NRC

The word “famine” is often used loosely to describe a situation of extreme and widespread hunger. But it also has a more precise definition in a humanitarian context. At the heart of this definition is the idea of “food insecurity.”

The five phases of food insecurity

When we say that people are food secure, it means they can access sufficient nutritious food on a regular basis. When people are food insecure, it means that their food supply isn’t guaranteed. Perhaps they’re struggling financially and can’t always afford to eat well. Or perhaps there simply isn’t enough food to go round in the area where they live.

In 2004, the UN devised a system for monitoring food insecurity in populations. The system is called the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification, or IPC for short.

It describes five levels, or phases, of food insecurity:

Phase 1: Minimal. People can get enough nutritious food without major changes to their everyday lives.

Phase 2: Stressed. People have minimally adequate diets but struggle to meet their other needs.

Phase 3: Crisis. Some people can’t get enough food and have high levels of malnutrition. Others are forced to use up their savings and other assets to support their basic food needs.

Phase 4: Emergency. People face extreme food shortages. Acute malnutrition and disease levels are high. The risk of hunger-related death is rapidly increasing.

Phase 5: Famine. People are unable to access food or meet their other basic needs. At least one in five households face extreme food shortages, and at least 30 percent of children suffer from acute malnutrition. Each day, at least two out of every 10,000 people die of starvation or malnutrition-related disease.

Why do we need the phase system?

The main purpose of the IPC system is to provide information to decision-makers so that they can take action to stop crises getting worse. The system looks at different aspects of food insecurity, including urgent medical needs, urgent food needs, and issues that are more persistent or seasonal such as repeated crop failure.

This analysis helps to identify what kind of intervention is needed – for example, whether it should take the form of emergency aid or longer-term development assistance.

Governments, UN agencies, NGOs and other stakeholders work together to monitor IPC levels in parts of the world where food insecurity is a concern. When IPC 3 (Crisis) is reached, these organizations mobilize to take urgent action.

In Somalia, nearly 6.7 million people are currently facing IPC 3 or worse – that’s more than 40 percent of the country’s population.

An aerial view of Qaydar-adde camp in Baidoa, one of the main destinations of people displaced by the severe drought in Somalia. Photo: Abdulkadir Mohamed/NRC

What happens when a famine is declared?

The decision to declare a famine is usually made jointly by the government of the affected country and various UN and other international agencies. It’s a complex process involving a lot of analysis and negotiation.

While this process is going on, famine-like conditions may already be afflicting parts of the country. In Somalia right now, for example, some 1.8 million children are thought to be acutely malnourished.

The declaration of a famine doesn’t place any formal obligations on the UN or its member states. However, it does help to focus the world’s attention on the problem – and thus generate emergency funding.

Where is food insecurity an issue?

According to the World Food Programme (WFP), there are more than half a billion people with insufficient food, and 16 countries with very high levels of hunger. Food insecurity is an issue in many different parts of the world, from Central America to Afghanistan, and the picture is constantly changing.

You can view the latest hunger hotspots on the WFP’s online hunger map.

What causes famine?

The most common cause of famine is drought. Other causes include flooding, crop disease, conflict, and political neglect or persecution.

Often, a combination of factors comes into play. In Somalia, a long-running conflict has exacerbated the effects of the ongoing drought. In addition, food prices in the country have risen steeply following the outbreak of war in Ukraine. Somalia used to rely on Russia and Ukraine for 90 per cent of its wheat, and has now been forced to find alternative, more expensive, food sources.

Climate change is contributing to more frequent, and more severe, droughts and floods around the world. We can expect food insecurity related to extreme weather to increase in the years to come.

Famines are often thought of as “natural disasters”, but they are usually caused to a large degree by human actions – or lack of action.

How common is famine?

In the last decade, famine has been declared on two occasions.

The famines in Somalia in 2011 and in South Sudan in 2017 resulted in the deaths of tens of thousands of people. These extreme crises were mainly driven by a combination of conflict and erratic weather patterns.

However, it’s important to note that death and suffering linked to food insecurity happen even when there isn’t a famine. In fact, by the time a famine is declared, children will already have started to die because their parents cannot give them enough food to survive.

That’s why it’s important to take decisive action early. In 2017, the international community helped to avert famine in Somalia and other parts of East Africa because it took early action. An even greater effort is needed now if we are to avert catastrophic loss of life.

What is NRC doing to help?

The Norwegian Refugee Council (NRC) has been supporting people displaced by conflict in Somalia since 2004. We also assist those affected by drought and other environmental factors.

Between January and August 2022, we reached 636,768 individuals as part of our Somalia Drought Response Plan, including:

• 363,136 people provided with food assistance

• 82,739 people provided with water, sanitation and hygiene support

• 121,673 people supported with information, counseling and legal assistance

• 48,284 people provided with shelter

• 20,936 children assisted with education

These 10 countries receive the most refugees

Amal, 8, and Bayan, 6, are Syrian refugees living in an informal tented settlement in Bekaa, Lebanon. Photo: Zaynab Mayladan/NRC

Turkey has provided protection to more refugees than any other country in the last ten years. But in terms of refugees as a proportion of the total population, no country comes close to Lebanon. Here are the ten countries that have received the most refugees in relation to their population during the period 2012–2021.

This article was first written in November 2020. It was updated on June 29, 2022, to include the 2021 figures.

1. Lebanon – 19.8 percent of the total population

Lebanon, with a population of 6.8 million, is currently hosting an estimated 1.5 million refugees from Syria. The real number is probably even higher because the national authorities demanded that the UN refugee agency (UNHCR) stop the registration of new refugees in 2015. In addition, hundreds of thousands of Palestinian refugees live in the country.

Lebanon itself has been ravaged by a civil war that lasted from 1975 until 1990. It is a densely populated country with a fragile political balance between different ethnic and religious groups.

Since 2019, the situation has gone from bad to worse, with large-scale popular protests eventually leading to the Prime Minister’s resignation. Then, in 2020, Beirut was shaken by a huge explosion, which killed more than 200 people, injured more than 6,000 and left over 300,000 homeless.

Unemployment is sky-high. The country’s currency has collapsed, reaching a historic low in May 2022, meaning much of the population is no longer able to afford the necessities of survival. On top of all this came the Covid-19 pandemic, followed by a rapid rise in food and energy prices as a result of the war in Ukraine.

More than 50 percent of the population live below the poverty line. For Syrian refugees, the figure is even higher, with 83 percent living in extreme poverty.

Lebanon now has an urgent need for the rest of the world to step up and help the country that has taken the greatest responsibility for helping displaced people.

The Norwegian Refugee Council (NRC) works to support refugees and displaced people in over 35 countries around the world.

2. Jordan – 10.4 percent

Jordan has received over one million refugees in the last ten years. The vast majority were fleeing neighbouring Syria. While a comparatively small number have since decided to return to Syria or have been able to resettle in other countries, there are still more than 675,000 Syrian refugees registered with the UN refugee agency living in Jordan today.

Over 80 percent of Syrian refugees in Jordan live in urban centers where they face the challenge of finding sustainable work and affordable housing. Competition for limited employment opportunities can lead to tensions with the local population. The remaining 20 percent of Syrian refugees live in one of two refugee camps, established by the Jordanian authorities for Syrian refugees and managed by the UN refugee agency.

Jordan also houses 2.3 million Palestinian refugees. These are people who fled or were expelled from their country during the 1947-49 Palestine war and the Six Day War in 1967, and their descendants.

3. Nauru – 6.8 percent

This small island state has received boat refugees who were trying to get to Australia when Australian authorities refused to accept them. The UN refugee agency has been highly critical of the agreement Australia has made with Nauru and other countries and is concerned about the reprehensible conditions the refugees live under. Australia has now agreed to stop sending refugees to Nauru.

4. Turkey – 5.0 percent

Turkey has received more refugees than any other country since 2011 – as many as 4.3 million. Turkey is a large and populous country and is better equipped to handle the challenge than, for example, Lebanon. Nevertheless, it is challenging to provide protection to such a large number of people within a few short years.

Turkey signed an agreement with the European Union (EU) in 2016 that prevents refugees from moving on to Europe. This has had serious consequences for both the refugees who have made it to Greece and those who remain in Turkey.

5. Uganda – 3.7 percent

Uganda has received 1.8 million refugees over the last ten years and is one of the largest recipients of refugees in the world. In recent years, Uganda has provided protection to people from DR Congo and South Sudan in particular, but the country has also received refugees from Burundi, Somalia, Rwanda and several other countries. Uganda is a pioneer in integrating refugees and giving them full rights.

6. Sudan – 2.7 percent

With over 1.2 million refugees since 2012, Sudan is the fifth largest recipient country in absolute numbers. Most have fled the conflict in neighboring South Sudan. In the past year, the country has also received refugees from the conflict in Ethiopia. Sudan is also a key transit country for refugees from Eritrea, Ethiopia and Somalia, among others, who are trying to flee to Europe. 

7. Sweden – 2.6 percent

Sweden has long had the most generous refugee policy in Europe and, unlike many other countries, has actively welcomed refugees. But the large influx of refugees to Europe in 2015, where many European countries were unwilling to share the responsibility, led the government to introduce a temporary law that limited the rights of refugees to a minimum of what the country has committed itself to through international conventions. Despite this, Sweden still received far more refugees than most European countries.

8. Malta – 2.5 percent

Alongside Sweden, Malta is the Western country that has received the most refugees relative to its population. The country is located near the coast of North Africa and receives many refugees and migrants trying to reach Europe from Libya. The pressure became even greater for a period when Italy made it almost impossible for rescue vessels to dock at its own ports.

9. Mauritania – 2.4 percent

Mauritania has for decades had an open-door policy toward refugees from the region and is the largest recipient country of refugees from the civil war in neighboring Mali. It has also for several decades housed refugees from the occupied Western Sahara. In addition, Mauritania has received refugees from a number of other countries, including as far away as Syria.

10. Greece – 2.2 percent

For a long time, refugees have traveled through Greece on their way to other countries in Europe. But until the so-called European “refugee crisis” in 2015 and 2016, relatively few refugees remained in Greece. This changed dramatically when the EU tightened its refugee policy and demanded that, as a general rule, all refugees should receive protection in the first European country to which they arrived. This put a lot of pressure on Greece, which did not have the capacity to provide good protection to large numbers of refugees. As a result, refugees have had to live in poor conditions in overcrowded camps, including on the Greek islands.

Other major recipient countries

In addition to these ten countries that have received the most refugees relative to their population, there are certain populous countries that have received a large number of refugees during this period and have contributed positively to giving many people a secure future.

The most important of these countries are:

• Germany – 1,337,000 refugees (1.6% of the total population)

• Ethiopia – 830,000 (0.7%)

• United States – 734,000 (0.2%)

• Bangladesh – 678,000 (0.4%)

• Russia – 456,000 (0.3%)

• Cameroon – 444,000 (1.6%)

• DR Congo – 403,000 (0.4%)

This article was first written in November 2020. It was updated on June 29, 2022, to include the 2021 figures.